DYS19<=9 Project ... Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor

Comparing paper trail history with calculations
Data of Swiss ancestry persons tested exhibiting DYS19<=9; 11 July 2014

Calculations and HTML formats are from mymcgee.com, with gratitude
Paths from X to Y and Y to X differ in length, according to the generation of the subject.

Time (Generations) to Most Recent Common Ancestor Paper /Calc@50% /Calc@95%
From ... ... To	S W 0 0 4	S W 0 0 5	S W 0 0 3	S W 0 0 8	S W 0 0 7	S W 0 0 1	S W 0 0 2	S W 0 0 6
SW004	111	15 /12 /22	19 / 7 /14	19 /10 /19	19 /22 /42	19 /12 /22	19 /20 /32	19 /17 /35
SW005	13 /12 /22	111	17 /14 /24	17 /18 /29	17 /27 /49	17 /20 /32	17 /22 /34	17 /22 /42
SW003	18 / 7 /14	18 /14 /24	111	9 / 8 /17	9 /17 /35	15 /14 /24	15 /18 /29	15 /22 /42
SW008	17 /10 /19	17 /18 /29	8 / 8 /17	111	3 / 8 /21	14 /18 /29	14 /20 /32	14 /32 /56
SW007	17 /22 /42	17 /27 /49	8 /17 /35	3 / 8 /21	37	14 /32 /56	14 /17 /35	14 /22 /42
SW001	17 /12 /22	17 /20 /32	14 /14 /24	14 /18 /29	14 /32 /56	111	11 /20 /32	13 /17 /35
SW002	18 /20 /32	18 /22 /34	15 /18 /29	15 /20 /32	15 /17 /35	12 /20 /32	111	14 /27 /49
SW006	18 /17 /35	18 /22 /42	15 /22 /42	15 /32 /56	15 /37 /64	14 /17 /35	14 /27 /49	37
- Paper trail believed accurate +/- one generation - Calculated TMRCA is based on probability 50% /95% that TMRCA is no longer than indicated - Calculation uses infinite allele mutation model - count of markers mismatched - Average mutation rate varies: 0.0026 to 0.0031; rates derived by Doug McDonald from the Sorenson database - Calculation does not accommodate differing testee generations - Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested

Conclusion: the TMRCA calculations vary widely from the paper-trail based facts.